The ceasefire agreement signed on November 9, 2020 between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia has been in effect for over two weeks. As districts are being handed over to Azerbaijan, it is highly doubtful that the agreement has a strong basis to secure long term peace in the region. Armenia faces a new reality and the necessity to assess the situation correctly has never been more important. In order to do so, a few main questions need to be answered. How did Armenia end up in this situation? What are the main areas of reform? How to prepare for peace and war?
In this article, an overview is presented by a number of experts on the issue of the Artsakh war, namely, Emil Sanamyan (expert on South Caucasus, USC), Dr. Laurence Broers (Associate Fellow at Chatham House and expert on the South Caucasus), Pierre Terzian (economist and energy expert), Georgi Derluguian (Professor of historical sociology at the University of New York at Abu Dhabi). Eric Hacopian (political consultant) and Thomas de Waal (senior fellow with Carnegie Europe).
September 27, the first day of the war.
Emil Sanamyan
Unprecedented Turkish Involvement in Today’s Karabakh Escalation
Emil Sanamyan, a specialist on the South Caucasus and the editor of FOCUS ON KARABAKH, a news and analysis platform of the Institute of Armenian Studies at the University of Southern California speaks on the Second Artsakh.
September 28, the second day of the war.
Laurence Broers
These Clashes Are Worse Than the Four-Day War of April 2016
As of September 28, there are at least 50 casualties on the Armenian side. Dr. Laurence Broers, Associate Fellow at Chatham House and expert on the South Caucasus, gives his take on the attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Prospect Of Full Scale Armenia-Azerbaijan War Real If Russia, Turkey Intervene
Speaking to StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi, Dr. Laurence Broers said there is the “prospect of a full-scale war” if the conflict is “not contained in four or five days”.
October 3, the first week of the war.
Pierre Terzian
End of Oil Era Accelerated Azerbaijani Aggression
Economist Pierre Terzian discussed the reasons behind Azerbaijan’s aggression in the context of declining oil and gas markets. Pierre (Bedros) Terzian is the founder of Petrostrategies, a Paris-based think tank specializing in energy issues and geoeconomics.
October 9, second week of the war.
Eric Hacopian
Azerbaijan’s Use of Jihadists is Bad News for Entire Region
Eric Hacopian discusses the use of Syrian jihadist mercenaries by the Azerbaijani army, and what this means for the region. The possible use of Afghan mujahideen is also another factor that puts into question Azerbaijan’s military capabilities.
October 19, third week of the war.
Professor Georgi Derluguian
A Sociological Perspective on the Karabakh War
A discussion about the Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression in Nagorno Karabakh with Georgi Derluguian, Professor of historical sociology at the University of New York at Abu Dhabi.
October 26 -28, fourth week of the war.
Eric Hacopian
Should US Attempts to Broker Peace Be Taken Seriously?
American political expert Eric Hacopian gave his take on the latest US attempt to broker a ceasefire in Karabakh. He further spoke on what Trump’s foreign policy means for Artsakh, as well as the moves of the Biden campaign and the US’ role in all this.
The Politics of Military Decision Making and the Nuclear Option
Eric Hacopian, a US political analyst of 30 years, discusses the “nuclear option” and the military decision making process in Armenia. He explains what might trigger the “nuclear option”, what it stands for, and what should be expected in return.
November 4, fifth week of the war.
US Elections Impact On Karabakh War
American political expert Eric Hacopian gave his take on what the 2020 US Presidential elections mean for the Karabakh war, as well as what a Biden presidency or continued Trump presidency will mean for US-Turkey relations, a possible US-brokered ceasefire, and promises of recognizing the Armenian Genocide.
November 9, the last day of the war.
Is Turkey’s Lira Crash Dashing Neo-Ottoman Ambitions?
Eric Hacopian discusses whether Erdogan’s Turkey can foot the bill for its neo-Ottoman foreign policy ambitions, or will a crashing lira spell major problems for Ankara’s out of proportion foreign policy goals?
November 10 -12, the first days after the war.
Thomas de Waal
Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal will ‘reset the map’
The Russian-brokered ceasefire that brought an end to six weeks of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has been described as a major victory for Azerbaijan, and loss for Armenia, that will ‘reset the map’. As Thomas de Waal, senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, explains, the deal returns territory to Azerbaijan, introduces Russia to the conflict through a peace-keeping mission, and benefits Turkey with a new land corridor to the Caspian Sea.
Eric Hacopian
The Day After the 2020 Karabakh War Ended: An Analysis
Eric Hacopian gives his take on what the end of the 2020 Karabakh war means for Armenia and Armenians, as well as what steps should now be taken, and what is the current situation within Armenia.
What’s Next For Nikol Pashinyan?
Eric Hacopian gives his take on the current anti-government protests in Yerevan and discusses what’s next for the Pashinyan government. Hacopian looks at political alternatives available in the country, Armenia’s diplomatic team’s preparedness, and the post-war actions of Pashinyan and Artsakh President Arayik Harutyunyan.
November 16 – 20, the first week after the war.
What Should Armenia Do?
Eric Hacopian gave his take on what action plan Armenia should take in terms of the military, politics and the economy. Hacopian furthermore reacted to the Armenian PM’s recent statements and explained his message to Armenians who are despairing.
Unpacking the Political Crisis in Armenia
Eric Hacopian gives his take on holding snap elections, forming a unity government, the foreign minister’s resignation and the president’s call for a snap election. Moreover, Hacopian spoke on how Armenians should perceive this current political crisis.
What’s Russia’s Play in Karabakh?
What is Russia’s plan is for Nagorno-Karabakh? Hacopian also speeks about the issue of status, transport corridors opening in the South Caucasus and the West’s reaction to growing Russian influence.
Dr. Laurence Broers
Is Karabakh Going to Become like Abkhazia & South Ossetia?
November 23 – 25, the second week after the war.
Eric Hacopian
Is the West Losing Armenia?
What direction should Armenian foreign policy take now and what it might look like in ten years. Has the West lost Armenia? And what can Armenia learn from the West’s management of the situation during the war?
How Armenian Foreign Policy Should Approach the Power Centers of the World
How Armenia’s foreign policy team should approach the power centers and countries of the world, including Russia, the US, Europe, Iran, the Arab world, China and India.